Afghanistan’s Tale of Two Presidents
By: Jonathan Stormer Pezzi
"A Conversation with H.E. Mohammad Ashraf Ghani" by U.S. Institute of Peace / Patrick Tsui/FCO
New York— Speaking to a bulbous crowd of both shopkeepers and diplomats, Ashraf Ghani shirks off the distant explosions that bellow during his speech. He is used to it, he has been President of Afghanistan for several years, and after being recently announced as the winner in the country’s presidential election, he is ready for five more. However, just down the street, another man takes the oath of office for the same position.
On March 9th, Abdullah Abdullah, the former Chief Executive Officer of Afghanistan’s unity government, disputed the country’s recent election results and declared himself the president simultaneous to the announced winner and incumbent, Ashraf Ghani. Each man’s speech was broadcast side by side on many television networks, leaving some Afghanis unsure on who their next leader might be.
Rivals for years, Ghani and Abdullah ran against each other in September of 2019 in an election ridden with controversy. Fears of the Taliban and widespread political disillusionment led to a record-low turnout.
The Taliban launched several attacks on polling stations and rallies, killing dozens. These attacks successfully destroyed multiple polling stations and deterred an undeterminable amount of people from the voting. Authorities also reported they were not able to contact one-fifth of the nation’s polling stations due to security concerns.
Of the 9.6 million registered voters in the country, the election commission only received 1.82 million votes. If the turnout weren’t enough, the polling was also poorly managed.
Out of those 1.82 million votes, over a million of them were thrown out. The Guardian found problems with voter lists, issues with a biometric identification system aimed at curbing fraud, and hostile election workers. Regardless, following months of deliberation, Ghani was declared winner with 50.62% of the vote. Soon after, Abdullah rejected the result.
“On the basis of our people's clean votes, I took the oath of office as President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, alongside our 1st and 2nd Vice Presidents. I thank the nation, our team & allies for their support. We are determined to form an inclusive government soon,” said Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.
The international community has a clear horse in the race, with the US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, charge d'affaires of the US embassy to Afghanistan Ross Wilson, NATO commander Gen Scott Miller and ambassadors of European Union, Canada, Australia, Denmark, Germany and Norway all attending Ghani’s ceremony.
Unfortunately, this division comes at an especially bad time. As the US is withdrawing its troops, the Taliban and the Afghan government are set to meet to arrange a political solution to the ongoing conflict.
With a divided government and an already concerning power balance in favor of the Taliban, the talks will be either postponed or result in poor terms for the Kabul government. The interim will likely result in more violence. This crisis comes days after Mr Abdullah escaped unharmed from an attack by the Islamic State, which resulted in at least 32 people killed.
The dueling presidents have led to frustration within American policy circles as well. “The U.S. strongly supports a unified and sovereign Afghanistan and opposes any effort to establish a parallel government or any use of force to resolve political differences. Prioritizing an inclusive government is paramount for peace,” said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a statement on March 9th.
This isn’t the first time these two men have faced this issue. In 2014, the election results were also muddled with controversy, and led to months of political purgatory with no reigning singular figure in charge.
After extensive talks between the two opposing camps, a national unity govern was established where Abdullah was named Chief Executive of Afghanistan and Ghani as president in a 50-50 power sharing agreement.
It’s unclear what the solution will be moving forward. Ghani and Abdullah could come together to forge a similar agreement, but it would be difficult given the necessity of immediate political unity for the upcoming Taliban talks. With international and election commission backing, it appears that the Ghani government will likely be the recognized body. However, the split will have consequences yet to be seen.