Damming the Nile — African Countries Hope to Avert a War Over Water

Construction on Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam in the north-west of the country. Credit: Elias Asmare/AP/SIPA

By: Julian Mok

Lexington — Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have yet to reach a comprehensive agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) despite the latest round of talks in Washington. Once filled, the GERD would be Africa’s most powerful dam, will hold 13.3 cubic yards of water and help revive the Ethiopian economy.

Egypt, who lives downstream, needs assurance that they will have enough water to sustain their farms and communities who are largely dependent on the Nile River. Sudan is caught in the middle as an Egyptian ally, but also as a country who stands to benefit from the dam.

Nile River consists of two tributaries known as the White Nile and the Blue Nile, which meet in Sudan, and flow northwards towards Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea. Source

The dam is situated along the Ethiopian border with Sudan on the Blue Nile, a tributary of the Nile River. The Nile is the only major river in the world that runs from south to north, leaving Egypt in a vulnerable location in terms of water security.

A significant reduction in water volume upstream would have dire consequences in arid Egypt, which relies on the Nile for 90% of its water. On the other hand, once the dam is in operation, Ethiopia would produce 6000 megawatts (MW) of power, enough to meet domestic demand and export surplus electricity to neighboring countries like Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya.

Sudan would benefit from the power and the dam’s flood-controlling function.  Ethiopia could become Africa’s largest energy exporter, which would create countless employment opportunities and lead the country’s development efforts.

With the more than $5 billion dam now 80% complete, it is ready to be filled. Ethiopia wants to have the dam filled as quickly as possible to begin generating electricity.

However, Egypt is concerned that rapid filling would drastically reduce water flowing downstream, particularly to the Nile Delta. This area is the breadbasket of Egypt, home to more than 40 million people and half of the country’s agricultural produce.

AJ Labs estimates that if the dam were filled over a period of just three years, Egypt’s water supply would decrease by 50% and result in the loss of 67% of its farmland.

If, on the other hand, the reservoir were filled over a period of 21 years, Egypt could expect a more manageable loss of just less than 2.5% of its farmland. Egypt’s current per capita quota of water is approximately 21,000 cubic feet. Egyptian officials fear that with the GERD in operation, this number could fall to what is considered water-poverty level, about 17,600 cubic feet of water per capita. 

Lush green lands along the Nile River and in the Nile Delta provide a sharp contrast to the area further from water. Source

With so much at stake, efforts to reach an agreement are desperate. Since construction first began on the GERD in 2011, Egypt has been accused of attempting to thwart construction through violent or illegitimate means with leaders from both countries threatening war over the issue in the past.

Reaching an agreement would ensure that this region can avoid being drawn into a war over water. Fortunately, all three countries involved appear to share a desire to find common ground and reach an agreement. 

Leaders from Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan first met in November 2019 to discuss possible solutions to the GERD dispute. The main bone of contention centers on how quickly the reservoir will be filled and how much water will be released downstream.

They agreed that if the three countries were not able to reach a solution by January 15, 2020, Article 10 of the 2015 Declaration of Principles would be invoked. Article 10 of the declaration states that “if the parties involved do not succeed in solving the dispute through talks or negotiations, they can ask for mediation or refer the matter to their heads of states or prime ministers."

As the January 15th deadline passed with the countries unable to produce more than a vague initial deal, leaders called upon the US to mediate the process. 

President Trump offered the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to host the negotiation and act as an observer to the talks. Leaders of the World Bank were also present. Ethiopian, Egyptian and Sudanese delegations gathered in Washington last Tuesday to nail down the details on the initial agreement. Although negotiations were scheduled to end on Wednesday, talks continued until Friday with the countries unable to reach a finalized comprehensive agreement on the technical and legal aspects of the dam.

The three countries hope to reach an agreement by the end of February that would include a stage-based schedule for filling the reservoir and mitigation procedures for filling and operating during severe droughts. 

According to Aaron Salzberg, the director of the Water Institute at the University of North Carolina, the countries need to strive for a final agreement that is “easily codified in terms of numbers” and includes a joint decision-making process to allow for flexibility during changing conditions.

The amount of water in the Nile changes drastically from year to year, which can complicate a water-sharing agreement. While flexibility is necessary, Salzberg warns, however, that the agreement can not be “too open to interpretation” as it might set the stage for conflict in the future.

The President of UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Hydrologic Program shared a similar sentiment, calling for “equitable sharing” to ensure “water peace” amongst all 11 countries in the Nile Basin. 

On a continent as arid as Africa, a dispute over water security is an existential threat. Successfully arriving at a flexible and equitable deal would not only ensure water peace between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, but set a precedent for future conflicts involving riparian countries.

Whether in Africa or elsewhere, water will continue to be a point of contention particularly as extreme weather and climate change create unpredictable consequences. A successful agreement on the GERD would mark an important breakthrough in a time where water conflicts are becoming more numerous.