How the Somalia-Kenya Maritime Dispute is Part of Greater Conflict

By: Julian Mok

Somali National Army (SNA) soldier takes up a defensive position during a live-fire exercise Photo credit: AU-UN IST PHOTO / STUART PRICE.

Lexington — The generally cooperative relationship between Kenya and Somalia has seen rising diplomatic tensions in recent months, stemming from a years-long maritime dispute. Both Nairobi and Mogadishu lay claim to a 62,000 square mile area of the Indian Ocean that is thought to be rich in oil and gas. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is set to hear and resolve the issue in a hearing scheduled for June 2020, which will likely be delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

Kenya and Somalia disagree on how each country’s land border extends out into the sea. Somalia believes that the sea border should follow the same direction as their land border, while Kenya asserts that the sea border should take a 45-degree turn and run along a latitudinal line. 

Map courtesy of Mikrobølgeovn

As the weaker player with less regional support, Somalia called upon the ICJ in 2014 to resolve the issue using the international legal system. Kenya, on the other hand, has wanted to settle the matter out of court, no doubt due to its stronger regional ties and greater diplomatic leverage.

Kenya has often taken in Somalian refugees fleeing al-Shabab and provided over 4,000 troops to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which has been crucial in controlling the spread of terrorist groups. AMISOM would be greatly weakened if Nairobi decided to pull its troops from Mogadishu in response to the maritime dispute.

Both Somalia and Kenya have global backing. The United Kingdom and Norway are the main supporters of Somalia’s bid for the disputed territory. UK has been involved in oil exploration in Somalia since the 1980s and Norway is one of the main bidders for Somalian oil and gas. Kenya’s backers include the US and France, both of whom have significant interests in oil exploration in this region.

The US has signed several trade deals with Kenya and the African nation is one of America’s main partners for war on terror in East Africa. Despite these interests, however, all nations involved understand the importance of retaining a partnership between the two African nations, as a instability could have spillover effects in neighboring countries. 

The recent tensions between Kenya and Somalia have centered on Jubaland, a semi-autonomous state in Somalia that has enjoyed a loose alliance with Kenya and threatened Somalia’s federalism. Jubaland is Somalia’s southern-most state that lies adjacent to Kenya, named for its proximity to the Juba River.

It has declared non-cooperation with Mogadishu, leaving it isolated from other Somalian states and occasionally buddying up with Kenya and other regional actors. If Jubaland were to continue showing rising loyalty to Nairobi, this will only increase tensions between the two nations who are already in the midst of a maritime dispute.

Tensions between the Somalia and Jubaland’s leadership reached a fever pitch last month, when fighting broke out between the two sides, spilling into Kenyan territory. Kenyan officials declared this to be an unprovoked attack on Kenyans by Somalian government forces, who destroyed several houses on Mandera, a border town. Kenyan officials warned that further provocation by Mogadishu would result in government intervention. This skirmish comes on the heels of Somalian accusations that Kenya is harboring a Jubaland minister fleeing from Somalia. 

These disputes are especially alarming as Kenya has allegedly discussed the actual annexation of Somalian territory, particularly Jubaland and the Gedo region. Their justification is that with the presence of Kenyan troops in the Gedo region, terrorist groups from Somalia would not be able to infiltrate refugee camps in Kenya to recruit troops and carry out attacks. According to some experts, however, it would be very difficult and unlikely for Kenya to indeed carry out an annexation of Somalian territory. What this does illustrate is that tensions are very high between Mogadishu and Jubaland, and some Kenyan activities are actively fanning those flames.  

Regional experts stress the importance of a peaceful resolution between Kenya and Somalia, two countries deeply intertwined and interdependent. Although the ICJ hearing is set for June 2020, it is likely the dispute will continue long after.

While ICJ rulings are binding, there is no enforcing body – it is not unusual for their rulings to be ignored. To ensure stability and security in the Horn of Africa, Kenya and Somalia must engage in productive, high-level diplomacy. While Coronavirus has largely halted diplomacy throughout the world, this can only be a short pause in these two country’s efforts to negotiate and reach an acceptable agreement.