The End May Be Near — Syrian Forces Poised to Take Last Rebel Stronghold

By: Nathan Matsko

Bellefonte — After years of civil war, it is becoming clear that President Bashar Al-Assad and his government will retain control of the country. Al-Assad seems determined to solidify his power as pro-government forces move to crush the remaining revolutionary factions in his nation.

Idlib, a province in the Northwest of Syria, is one of the last remaining holdouts for rebel forces. Nearly 3 million people live in the region, with many having fled to Idlib from other regions ravaged by the civil war. Civilians are now fleeing from the southern parts of the region to the north in anticipation of the fighting.

Since December of 2019, more than 300,000 people have fled their homes in the province, with 400,000 people displaced and 1300 killed between May and August of last year, according to a statement by UN Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syrian Crisis Mark Cutts.

Renewed offensives into Idlib by the Syrian Government and its allies have been swift and brutal despite multiple ceasefire agreements, including new developments in early January.

The British Broadcasting Service reports the total devastation caused by airstrikes and ground fighting, with over 200 airstrikes allegedly targeting rebel held— but civilian occupied — areas. The Syrian government and its allies have failed to prevent civilian casualties over the course of the conflict, and the assault on Idlib is no exception. Airstrikes have hit countless centers of civilian life, including a hospital in the town of Ariha, killing 10 and wounding dozens.

*Political map and borders of the Syrian conflict. Cr: Al Masdr News*

While many would be tempted to put the majority of the blame on government forces, the actions of rebel forces in the region should not be overlooked.

The primary anti-government faction in Idlib, Hay’et Tahrir Al-Sham (formerly Al-Nusra Front, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda) has been accused by Human Rights Watch of attacking civilians in government-controlled areas, as well as arresting and torturing civilians in areas under their control. The encroaching government forces are leading groups like Hay’et Tahrir Al-Sham to resort to extreme measures, including recruiting and training children to fight on the front lines.

While violence continues to escalate in Idlib, civilians are running out of options. Turkey, who has already taken in millions of Syrian refugees, is unlikely to accept many more.

Even seemingly innocuous solutions such as international aid are hitting roadblocks. China and Russia recently vetoed the renewal of a UN resolution which allowed aid to be delivered across the Turkish border to militia-governed areas of Northern Syria, says Amnesty International. Nearly 3 million Syrians depend on international assistance for survival.

As the conflict in Syria nears the nine year mark, the situation in Idlib threatens to become one of the worst humanitarian crises to come out of the civil war in recent memory.

Assad and his government have not let potential civilian casualties hinder victories against rebel groups in the past; and they are not likely to change now. This is not merely another region trading from militia to government hands. It is a message, a declaration of dominance from Bashar Al-Assad, in which he yearns to make it clear that he is here to stay by crushing what is left of the rebellion in Syria. Idlib’s fate is being sealed, one village at a time.